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发布时间：2022-04-30 06:44:43
John Kerry, US secretary of state, believes there may be a window of opportunity for a negotiated solution to the bloody civil war in Syria. As a new member of Barack Obama’s cabinet, he is right to explore all the options on his first foreign outing. However the rising death toll, now at more than 70,000, is a grim reminder that time is not on his side.
The US secretary of state may be hoping to take advantage of recent comments by senior members of both opposition and regime forces that they would be open to dialogue. He may also want to exploit growing frustration in Moscow with Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, who relies on Russian support to stay in power. It is encouraging that the noises out of Moscow are positive about a co-ordinated effort with Mr Kerry despite otherwise tense relations with the US. Nonetheless, this is a road that has been travelled before.
Mr Assad is well versed in the game of appearing to concede in order to gain time. Meanwhile, Russia wil济南癫痫医院哪家专业l resist any effort that smacks of regime change and Mr Assad has said he intends to stay until the next election in 2014. Finally, the political opposition remains disconnected from fighters on the ground, who refuse talks while he is in power. The battle is at a desperate stalemate. Mr Assad has been unable to regain control of Syria, while the disparate rebel forces cannot topple the regime as long as the west refuses to deliver the weapons they need. In the interim, the civil war is being hijacked by jihadist fo小儿癫痫要怎么治疗会好呢 怎么选择治疗癫痫的方法rces positioning themselves for a post-Assad era.
A negotiated settlement would be the ideal solution. But the chances of striking a deal appear remote. In this context, the new secretary of state cannot allow talks to drag on interminably. He should also press President Obama to re-examine his refusal to consider arming rebels.
If Mr Kerry is to have any diplomatic force in discussions he must be able to threaten an alternative. Mr Assad has cynically exploited the west’s reluctance to intervene to stay in power. This bluff has to be called. This applies equally to the EU, which last week rejected a UK call to lift its arms embargo to allow shipments to rebels.
If western powers continue to stand on the sidelines, the war will drag on. The longer it continues, the more likely it is that jihadis will build a bridgehead in the eastern Mediterranean that will contaminate the region and beyond. In that case, the west may have intervention forced upon it.
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